RISK ASSESSMENT

The Disaster Management Act (Act No. 57 of 2002) and National Disaster Management Framework assigns responsibility for hazard monitoring and risk mapping (“disaster risk assessment”) exhaustively to all spheres of government and all relevant organs of state within each sphere. The Disaster Risk Assessment for SBLM was undertaken with the aim of providing relevant disaster risk management and municipal role-players with a current and user-friendly document which will assist in implementing disaster risk reduction by focusing on pertinent risks in the SBLM.

The Disaster Management Act (57 of 2002) recognises the wide-ranging opportunities in South Africa to avoid and reduce disaster losses through the concerted energies and efforts of all spheres of government, civil society and the private sector. However, it also acknowledges the crucial need for uniformity in the approach taken by such a diversity of role players and partners.

A checklist of twelve criteria was developed by WCDMC as part of the standardised methodology for updating DRA’s. All DRA’s in the Western Cape Province has to conform to this standard. The risk of a disaster changes seasonally and over time, thus the intention is that the provincial risk profile can be easily evaluated and updated by a coherent and transparent process. Subsequently this report also conforms to the uniform provincial reporting format.

The standardised DRA methodology consists of two components: Scientific based DRA and Community based DRA.

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Firstly, the scientific research method comprises extensive desktop research, reviewing and analysing relevant and existing studies, and consultation with relevant district and provincial department stakeholders and hazard specialists. For the purpose of this project, the scientific methodology will analyse the current DRA in conjunction with the review document of 2011/2012 while addressing ten of the ten of the twelve points of the evaluation checklist (see Table 1 below)

Subheadings as applied in the DRA

1. Early Warning Signals: Does the assessment identify and analyse the potential hazard and or threat?

2. Hazard Frequency: Does the assessment indicate how frequently the hazard can occur?

3. Areas, communities or households most at risk: Does assessment clearly indicate which areas, communities or households are most at risk?

4. Likely impacts of hazard: Does the assessment indicate the likely impacts on areas, communities or households?

5. Level of risk for different situations and conditions (seasonality): Does the assessment determine the level of risk for different situations and conditions?

6. Conditions of vulnerability that increase the severity of the hazard: Does the assessment analyse the conditions of vulnerability that increase the possibility of loss for particular elements at risk?

7. Capabilities or resources that exist to manage the risk: Does the assessment analyse the capabilities or resources available to manage the risk?

8. Risk increasing or decreasing in the said area: Does the assessment indicate whether the risk is becoming more serious?

9. Primary impact on development progress in the areas, communities or households affected by risk: Does the assessment indicate the impact/influence the risk has on development in the identified areas?

10. Secondary impacts on development progress in the areas, communities or households affected by risk.

Secondly, the community based research method was facilitated in the form of four one-day focus-group workshops with local role-players and the SBLM community members, as a structured process of quantifying the relevant risks in the municipal area. Furthermore facilitating workshops with local role-players is aligned with the Act’s intent to increase local capacity so as to minimise the risk and impact of disasters. Role-players who was involved in the workshops included (1) representatives from government and non-government agencies; (2) local community leaders;

and (3) local communities.

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This report supports the need for communities and local authorities to be empowered to manage and reduce disaster risk by having access to the necessary information, resources and the authority to implement actions. This all-inclusive approach will contribute to understand problems at grassroots level, where they come from (their underlying causes) and to systematically look at the resources available to address risk reduction.

The data collected from these two methods was integrated to consolidate the results whilst spatial information was amalgamated into a holistic map locating the high risk areas of the SBLM. The spatially-referenced maps strengthen the risk profile of the SBLM in providing reasons why particular

communities, areas or infrastructure may be affected differently and where they are located.

The 2015/16 Disaster Risk Assessment indicated that the risk as being of most concern for the SBM to be (1) Veld fires (2) Structural Fires (3) Major Hazardous Installations (MHI’s) and (4) Social conflicts

Below in a table are the priority hazards identified during 2006 and 2016 Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA) conducted by the West Coast District (including Saldanha Bay) as well as Saldanha Bay Municipality Disaster Risk Assessment conducted 2016:

PRIORITY

HAZARDS 2006 RISK ASSESSMENT 2012 RISK ASSESSMENT 2016 RISK ASSESSMENT

Drought African Horse Sickness Seismic hazards Climate Change / Drought / Severe

Storms / Storm Surges HAZMAT: Road, Rail Municipal elections Sand-dune migration Regional Sea-level rise

Fire Newcastle disease Shoreline erosion (coastal

erosion) Heat Wave / Floods / Coastal Erosion

Storm Surges Renewable energy sources i.e. wind

farms Dam failure Human Disease / Animal Disease

Floods Rift Valley Fever National Key Points Veld and Vegetation fires

Scientific research methods

Local role- player based

workshops

Consolidated DRA

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PRIORITY

HAZARDS 2006 RISK ASSESSMENT 2012 RISK ASSESSMENT 2016 RISK ASSESSMENT Severe Winds Social conflict Nuclear event: Koeberg Power

Station Structural fires

Road Accidents Urbanization (Saldanha Bay and Malmesbury)

Major Hazardous installations

Animal diseases Electricity disruptions

Harmful algal blooms Disruption in Waste water management

Human disease Disruption in Water Supply

Social conflict

Air and ground pollution Harmful Algul bloom From the above table Major Hazardous Installation (MHI’s) and Climate Change was highlighted as risk of major concern.